中国地质大学学报(社会科学版）

本文应用1999-2006年全国31个省市的面板数据,分析了影响中国房地产价格的各种因素。影响房价的因素众多,笔者主要选取了供给方、需求方、地方政府以及一些主要的货币政策变量进行理论分析,并结合中国房地产的实际提出相应假说。实证结果显示,房价推动力的主要来源是需求方,而地方政府对房价的影响也不可忽视,而供给方和货币政策的相关变量对房价影响相对较小,其中名义利率对房价不具有显著影响,而实际利率影响较显著。依据笔者的实证结论,本文提供了一些相应的对房价调控的政策建议。

This paper conducted a factor analysis on China's real estate price using panel data of 31 provinces during 1999-2006.After the theoretical analyses of factors of supply,demand,local governments,as well as monetary policy,several hypotheses are proposed.The empirical results show that demand-side factors are major impetuses to housing prices,and local governments' policies cannot be neglected.In contrast,supply-side factors have little influence.As for monetary policy-related variables,nominal interest rate does not have a statistically significant impact,while real counterparts do have significant influence.Based on our empirical results,corresponding policy suggestions regarding price regulation have been made.